Kite runners of Kabul

There is a unique sound without it I cannot imagine our home in Afghanistan. When I close my eyes and think about Kabul, it is always the sound of flying kites what comes to my mind.
As we just moved to Afghanistan, I used to climb on the roof of our guesthouse: it was then the only possibility to see around. My favorite memory is about boys who just started to practice as kite runners with their primitive self-made plastic kites.
As winter is closing more and more kites flutter in the sky. The top event is Kite Festival that takes place around New Year, i.e. in March. My husband’s driver Massoud offered us to see the festival. There were thousands of men and boys – flying their kites over Kabul Stadium. We were greenhorns in Afghanistan, so we were afraid of the crowd. We preferred to stay in the car and looked at the kite runners from distance.
As a matter of fact, the string of the kite can be dangerous. Najeeb, colleague from Pakistan, tell us that Pakistanis use the small bits of glass to make the string sharper. It is a really nasty idea: those dangerous strings have caused fatal accidents.
Late Friday afternoon young relatives are visiting our landlord and trying to fly their colourful kites in our yard. The first attempt on the ground is not successful, so they move on to the balcony. I join them as an observer.
Youngsters need just one minute to send the kite up in the sky. After some time I can only see a small dot and five minutes later it is gone. Obviously somebody cut the string…

It is a fantastic feeling to sit on the balcony and to look at all those colourful pieces of joy everywhere in the sky. There is somebody on almost every roof. I try to count, but I stop after twenty. Just before the darkness falls, the experienced looking guy on the roof of the neighbour’s house draws down the last kite. The kite fighting is over.

Airbus A380 - the complete guide and review

For Stephen Bleach, being a part of the inaugural A380 flight on Thursday was revolutionary... but not for all the right reasons

I’ve always been pretty middle of the road, politically speaking. But whenever Gordon Brown deigns to call the next election, I’m voting Socialist Worker’s Party. Eight hours on a plane has turned me into a Marxist.

Not just any plane. I’ve just stepped off the first commercial flight of the A380 superjumbo, the largest passenger aircraft ever built. Yes, it’s impressive: taller than five double-decker buses, wider than a football pitch, 37 times the length of Peter Crouch in his socks, that sort of thing. And yes, it’s an amazing piece of engineering, a staggering technical achievement: but it’s also the best advert for Bolshevism since the tsar said, “Stuff that Lenin chap, let’s build another palace.”

Never has the gap between the haves and the have-nots of the air been more evident. At the front of the plane (business is on the top level, the “super-first” Suites at the front of main deck, economy at the back on both levels), the elite have unparalleled luxury and space. Further back, the proletariat have to... well, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’ve just spent eight hours in the cheap seats: here’s a blow-by-blow account.

Takeoff: it just shouldn’t. It doesn’t seem credible that something this size should get into the air at all. Our takeoff weight today was 468 tonnes, which is the equivalent of 12 very surprised sperm whales. And when it finally comes, 50 minutes after we started boarding today’s 455 passengers (they’ll need to speed that up a touch), takeoff is a revelation.

Where other planes crank up the engines to a mighty howl and go for a death-or-glory charge to get airborne, the A380 feels more like an inter-city train leaving a station: silent, gentle, almost imperceptible. There’s a moment of anxiety when the lack of any roar, or bumping, makes you think something is terribly wrong. Then finally, after 40 seconds of smooth, quiet acceleration, this unlikely behemoth leaves the ground with a whisper and drifts quietly into the skies as if it were the most natural thing in the world. After a moment’s collective sigh, everyone breaks into applause. Taking to the air with the A380 does, genuinely, feel like a miracle.

One hour in: as well as kind, civilised folk who’ve bid in a charity auction to be on the first A380 flight, the plane is full of rude, selfish, jostling journalists like me, and the moment the seat-belt sign is turned off, it’s the cue for all of us to leap to our feet and interview mercilessly anyone within notebook distance. We do tend to make a bit of noise, but I didn’t realise we’d actually drown out the engines. That’s how quiet this plane is. In the momentary lulls between hacks barking questions, you can hear the gentle conversations of real people four rows back.

Two hours in: journalistic frenzy over, time for lunch. It’s terrific, produced by a couple of celebrity chefs I’ve never heard of, but will look out for in future. Sam Leong’s fillet of bass with fungi is the best economy-class food I’ve ever had on an airline.

Three hours in: distractions done with, there’s time to take in the surroundings. And when I do, a question occurs. If this is really the most luxurious plane ever built, why am I still shoehorned into a 32in seat?

Here, I have a confession to make. Last week, when the press were first allowed to see the inside of this plane at the Airbus factory, I – along with every journalist there – got a bit overexcited about the double beds in first and the huge business-class seats; all newer, bigger and swisher than anything we’d seen before. As a result, we didn’t spend too much time in the ominously familiar-looking economy area. A sin of omission, for which the hour of judgment has just come. Or rather hours: I’ve got five more to go.

Some passengers say the economy area is much lighter and airier than we’re used to. I don’t see it – though the large windows do provide a better view. The seat is pretty comfortable... for cattle class. My knees don’t touch the seat in front, and it’s an inch or so wider than a standard 747 equivalent. But it’s still not the ideal place to spend eight hours or more of your life, especially when you know that the real high rollers are just a few feet away, in the Suites. Time to see how the other half live...

Four hours in: the airline people are standing close guard on the curtain that separates economy from first, but for an instant they take their eyes off it, and bingo: an advance party of journalists plunges through the gap.

It’s another world. Hushed, spacious, all the seats are in cabins a little like those you’d find on a cruise ship, although the partitions only reach to about eye level. The champagne flows incessantly, and there are normally unobtainable bottles of Château Cos d’Estournel 1982 being poured. In a few of the 12 elite suites, the inhabitants have had their flat beds made up, and sprawl languorously under Givenchy duvets in front of their 23in TVs. Nobody sleeps, though. Having paid up to £25,000 at auction for a ticket, they want to savour every minute.

Upstairs, the improvement in business class, with its colossal 34in-wide seats, is arguably even greater. With just four abreast as opposed to economy’s 10, it feels both communal and spacious. The lucky ones try hard not to look smug. I try hard not to be jealous. We all fail. Five hours in: back in the cheap seats, I ruminate on what might have been. When we were shown the first A380 back in 2003, we were promised the following: boutiques, self-service restaurants, duty-free shops, children’s play areas, casinos, pubs, libraries, gyms (with treadmills to prevent DVT), showers, 18-hole golf courses. (Okay, I made the last one up, but it was going that way.) So why am I sitting here, unexercised, unshowered and unshopped, with the nearest pub in the outback five miles down? Why do we only have a slightly better version of what every long-haul holidaymaker knows and loathes – rank upon rank of sardine-tin seats, with no room to circulate or socialise? Only one conclusion: they were having us on.

Aviation enthusiasts make up the bulk of the clientele today, and they’re determined to enjoy themselves, so I’m in a disgruntled minority (see below). And, to be fair to Singapore Airlines, they never made any of those extravagant claims anyway. But right now I don’t want to be fair. This feels like a missed opportunity.

Six hours in: the real test of a long-haul seat is: Can you sleep in it? I try for 40 winks. Not a chance. The buzz all around means it’s not a fair trial, but I suspect that even on a calmer flight, it wouldn’t be easy. One bonus point: that dried-out, sinusy feeling is noticeably absent. Higher pressurisation is apparently the reason. Seven hours in: time to test the much-vaunted entertainment system. In a stab at egalitarianism, everybody gets the same stuff (economy has a smaller screen, but it’s still a healthy 10+ inches). It’s cracking: 100 on-demand films, 150 TV programmes, 700 CDs. New films, too. There are USB ports and laptop power to every seat. No internet access, though it might come.

Eight hours in: we’re preparing to land, so I’ll sum up. If you’re planning a trip down under when the plane starts flying from London next spring, should you choose an A380? Yes. It’s fabulous in first and business, a touch more comfy than we’re used to at the back. Revolutionary? No – not for the huddled masses, anyway. Vive la révolution. Business class

Business class

Andy Odgers, 39, and Hazel Watt, 43, bagged seats together in business class. Here they are sitting in just one of them. “It’s fantastic, far better than any business class I’ve seen in a 747,” said Andy, “right down to the picture quality on the big TV screen.” The couple, from Richmond in Surrey, paid US$14,200 (£6,922) for the trip, but reckoned it was worth it. “My parents are in Sydney,” said Andy, “and they don’t know anything about us being on this flight. We’re just going to walk into their hotel and surprise them. They’ll be so jealous.” “It’s better than a lot of first-class seats,” said Hazel. “You could argue it’s a bit hot, but it’s the best flight I’ve ever had.”

First class

Julian Hayward, 38, paid top dollar for two seats on the inaugural A380 flight – literally: the one-way trip in the first-class Singapore Suites for himself and a friend set Julian back US$100,380 (£48,936). The entrepreneur invited The Sunday Times in for a cosy chat in his bijou suite. Was it worth it? “Absolutely – all the money goes to charity, so it’s ending up in the right place. And this flight really is a piece of history, the first outing for the biggest plane ever built.” Would he do it again? “Perhaps not for quite so much money! But yes, the standard is something you won’t find elsewhere. I’m very impressed by their wine list. Would you care for a glass?”

Economy class

Richard Killip, 45, bought three tickets for the economy cabin of the A380, and brought along his daughters, Sophie, 12, and Ellie, 10. All three – who hail from Liverpool, but now live in Singapore – loved the flight. “The most impressive thing was the takeoff,” said Richard. “It was so quiet, it was almost spooky.” “I’ve already shown off a little to my schoolfriends,” admits Sophie. “They’re all dead jealous that I’m on the first flight!” Who else will fly the A380?

- PLENTY MORE airlines are queuing up to get the biggest passenger plane on earth. But will they go where you want to fly? When will they start? And – crucially – what will the experience be like on board? Anxious to keep a commercial advantage, most are being cagey with the details. But here’s what we know so far...

QANTAS

Start date: August 2008

Routes: “The US and the UK,” says the airline – which is expected to mean Sydney to London (via Singapore or Hong Kong), plus direct flights from Australia to Los Angeles.

What’s on board?Suites in first class, though not as enclosed as Singapore’s cabins, and no double beds as yet. Lounge with sofas in business. Four self-service bars in economy, and seats by Recaro (which makes seats for Aston Martin). Plus internet access for all.

EMIRATES

Start date:August 2008

Routes:Dubai-London looks certain. Dubai to New York, Australia and India also likely.

What’s on board?Top secret, but there are clues. The airline is installing first-class suites with doors on its fleet of 777s, with styling based on the Orient-Express train, and is expected to go even more luxurious with its A380s – president Tim Clark said: “You ain’t seen nothing yet.” But on flights to India, Emirates will cram in 644 passengers.

AIR FRANCE

Start date:spring 2009

Routes:Paris to New York and Japan.

What’s on board?Questions bring nothing more than a Gallic shrug.

LUFTHANSA

Start date:summer 2009

Routes:20 being considered, from Frankfurt to Asia and North America.

What’s on board?A complete redesign for all three areas, but no details as yet.

BRITISH AIRWAYS

Start date:2012

Routes:Los Angeles, Singapore, Hong Kong and Johannesburg are likely to be first. New York “would be considered if customer demand were strong enough”.

What’s on board?BA only ordered the planes a month ago, so they haven’t decided yet. Don’t expect many gimmicks, though – for that, look to...

VIRGIN ATLANTIC

Start date:2013

Routes:Los Angeles, Dubai.

What’s on board?More double beds for sure, plus a casino – chairman Richard Branson says: “There’ll be two ways to get lucky on our A380s.”

Showers and gyms have been mentioned too.

Four Problem Traders; Four Trading Strengths

A while back I posted on the topic of trader strengths, and readers offered worthwhile perspectives on some of the factors that distinguish successful from unsuccessful traders. After much consideration, I decided to approach the topic a bit differently: by outlining four kinds of problem traders I frequently encounter and by identifying the strengths that help people deal with these problems.

Problem Trader #1: The Frustrated Trader - The frustrated trader deals with frequent angry reactions during trading. Sometimes the anger may be vented outward; other times it is turned inward. For example, many rigidly perfectionistic traders are also frustrated traders, because they cannot live up to their impossible standards and thus artificially create failure experiences for themselves. Frustrated traders are often impulsive traders and will make trades to either compensate for prior losing trades or to make up for missed opportunities. Frustrated traders will often ignore position-sizing rules and undergo occasional blowup losses as a result. It's easy to identify the frustrated trader by their physical cues: yelling, cursing, complaining, and gesturing when they should be focused on the screen. The key strength that combats frustration: self-acceptance and being supportive of oneself. Key techniques for combating frustration: setting reasonable goals; using biofeedback for building self-control and calm focus; and mentally rehearsing trading plans/rules to make them more automatic during the trading day.

Problem Trader #2: The Anxious Trader - The anxious trader is consumed with fears of loss, missing out on objective opportunity either by not taking signals or by sizing positions too conservatively. In a sense, the anxious trader is more concerned about not losing than about winning. This risk aversion can lead to analysis paralysis, as the trader waits for the perfect setup that never quite materializes. Sometimes the anxious trader is one who has been traumatized by prior losses. It's too painful to relive memories of those losses, and so the anxious trader exits positions too quickly and is too reluctant to get into positions. A very common feature is cutting profits rapidly out of fear of losing those. Signs of the anxious trader include muscle tension, worry, relief over getting out of positions (or away from the screen), and inability to trade reasonable size. The key strength that combats anxiety is confidence and an ability to accept loss as a natural part of trading. The techniques most helpful in combating anxiety include cognitive methods for replacing worry talk with constructive problem solving; behavioral techniques to calm oneself and reprogram stress responses; setting process rather than outcome goals; and regaining confidence by trading successfully in simulation mode and gradually building one's size.

Problem Trader #3: The Overconfident Trader - Overconfident traders approach trading like a casino--and they're not the house! The overconfident trader typically overtrades, which means trading size too large for their account and trading more often than opportunity dictates. Very often the overconfident trader is attracted to action in markets, rather than consistent profits and sound discipline. As a result, the overconfident trader can be identified by winning periods punctuated by unusually large and damaging losses. Sometimes the overconfident trader is also a desperate trader, hoping to strike it rich. A common feature of overconfident traders is their lack of preparation: they think that anyone can make it with simple methods and a gut feel. The problem is that they never spend enough time reviewing markets and intensively watching screens to develop that feel. The key strength that combats overconfidence is humility, a respect for markets and risk, and conscientiousness in crafting and following trading rules. Techniques that combat overconfidence include mental rehearsal and self-hypnosis to instill trading rules and support rule-governance; mechanical position sizing to avoid risk of ruin; and cognitive techniques to intercept and challenge grandiose thoughts following winning periods.

Problem Trader #4: The Defeated Trader - Defeated traders are ones who, in trader parlance, have "lost their mojo". Their thought patterns are negative and this blinds them to opportunity. Very often they will be filled with shame, remorse, and guilt over past losses and very often they enter new trades expecting the worst. As a result, they don't often enter new trades and will miss out on opportunities that are genuinely present. They often stop working at their trading, as anything trading-related is associated with emotional pain. Defeatism thus becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's easy to recognize defeated traders, not only by their depressed mood, low energy, and lack of enthusiasm, but also by their "yes, but" rejection at helping efforts. Very often the defeated trader will focus on losses and mistakes and gloss over progress that's been made: they see the trading cup as half empty, rather than half full. The key strength that combats defeatism is emotional resilience and the ability to use losses as learning experiences. Techniques that combat defeatism include cognitive methods for reprocessing negative thought patterns; structuring of the learning process to emphasize strengths and solutions rather than mistakes; and a focus on attainable goals and the creation of success experiences.

Most of us can identify elements of these four traders in ourselves. If I had to choose, I'd say that I am most like the Anxious Trader. I am quick to step away from markets when my setups aren't there--sometimes too quick! Many of the traders I work with fit into the Frustrated Trader category: they're aggressive, achievement-oriented, and hard on themselves.

Knowing your patterns does not, in itself, enable you to change them, but it's a necessary step. Indeed, I find that, regardless of the patterns, the first step of progress a trader makes is interrupting old patterns that aren't working and trying something different. The ability to stand outside oneself as an observer of patterns is a core self-coaching skill.

How 9 Internet Startups Lost 2 Billion Dollars

To an outsider looking in, venture capitalists may look like the cavalry of the gravy train. Images come to mind of handsome men in sharp looking suits, swooping in on helicopters with briefcases full of money for people like us to follow our dreams. But to the insider who has actually worked in those fields, venture capitalists are just that. Capitalists. They are businessmen whose jobs, just like any other businessman, are to make money. And like anyone else, they are capable of mistakes. Aggressive lending and bad management can easily destroy any business. And no where is this more famous than in the tech industry.

Webvan -- Webvan started as a reasonably sensible idea, "A Super Market that Delivers!" Unfortunately the leeway offered through $800,000,000 gave the company enough slack to hang itself with its own spending. With those kinds of funds at Webvan's disposal the company grew at such a rate that it overextended itself. Throughout a period of eighteen months, Webvan expanded its reach from San Francisco to eight other cities across the United States. At its zenith it reached a value of over 1.2 billion dollars. But supermarkets already have razor-thin profit margins. Add that with the burden of a new, untested business model, and the growing pains alone were enough to finish off the company. To this day, one may be able to find WebVan logos in the nooks and hideaways of AT&T park (then Pacific Bell), the stadium Webvan sponsored when it thought it had money to throw away.

Pets.com -- Started by Greg McLemore then bought by venture cap firm Hummer Winblad and executive Julie Wainwright, Pets.com was proof that it takes more than a "money is no object" marketing campaign to save you. The talking sock-puppet Pets.com became known for was a balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade and even made it into the crown jewel of all television advertising, a spot during the Super Bowl. But as popular as their mascot was, Pets.com was never able to convince its prospective customers why they should buy their pet supplies online. Ironically, it could be said that the initial investors were directly to blame for Pets.com's downfall. Investors pumped millions into the company with the predetermined knowledge that it would be thrown at marketing. Then, before any real value had been established within the company itself, Pets.com was made public. The company still could have plausibly been saved, but the investors instead allowed it to die quickly without giving it any long-term opportunity to grow. With the release of its IPO, Pets.com raised $82.5 million only to disappear less than a year later.

Kozmo.com -- A great idea poorly executed. Kozmo.com was founded by investment bankers Joseph Park and Yong Kang. The company's purpose was simple: to deliver a wide variety of small goods within an hour for no delivery charge. Wanted popcorn, soda, and a movie on your doorstep in under an hour? No problem! Unfortunately for Kozmo, the gimmick that made it famous, "Free Delivery", was also its undoing. The company claimed that the money saved by not needing rental space for store fronts would easily offset the costs of delivery. This however was not the case as the company would shut its doors after only three years of service. Kozmo raised roughly $250 million in funding including $60 million directly from Amazon.com, but one wonders what their logic was when they promised $150 million of that money to Starbucks for advertising.

Flooz.com -- Why spend dollars when you can use the internet's own new currency, "Flooz!" Why indeed? Flooz.com would go belly-up after only two and half years, but not before burning through something between $35 and $50 million in venture capital funding. With that kind of money it's obvious how Flooz.com was able to afford their spokesperson, Oscar-winner Whoopi Goldberg. Despite acquiring a well-received spokesperson, one has to question the rest of this company's logic. Namely, why would someone exchange currency backed by the United States government for currency backed by only a fledgling internet startup company in New York? At least gift cards are backed by their merchant. When Flooz.com went under, all Flooz credit became worthless.

eToys.com -- At first glance eToys.com seemed like a sound idea, "Sell toys on the internet!" However, when placed in the context of competing with an alliance between Amazon.com and Toys 'R' Us, it's obvious how bleak the picture really was. Funded by "idealab!" eToys raised $166 million with its IPO, but within 16 months its share price went from a high of $84 down to a low of 9 cents. "Idealab!" itself would be burned so badly through its tech investments that it would close a number of its offices and cancel its own IPO. Like other internet startups, eToys would burn through the bulk of its income through aggressive marketing and expensive advertisements. In the end however, its income would never exceed its spending. The company went under in less than two years after its IPO.

Go.com -- As a web portal, Go.com became definitive proof that even the "old guard" weren't safe from blowing large amounts of money by investing in the tech industry. Created by the Walt Disney Internet Group, Go.com was founded in 1995, but really began in 1998 when it merged with Infoseek. The intention was for Go.com to become a destination site, much like Yahoo, or later Google. Countless millions were spent in advertising with the site never growing popular enough to justify the costs. In the end, many people lost their jobs and Disney took a write off of $790 million. A lot of cash, even for a company like Disney. Go.com exists today but uses Yahoo as its search engine and only carries feeds from other Disney Web properties.

Boo.com -- As Go.com proved that even the "old guard" weren't safe, Boo.com showed that losing huge amounts of money through investing in the tech industry wasn't something bound solely within the United States. Based in the United Kingdom, Boo.com was an online store that specialized in brand name clothing. Setting aside "keeping it simple" the executives instead prioritized giving their web pages a sexy design steeped heavily in JavaScript and Flash technology. From a virtual sales assistant to web pages that took several minutes to load, Boo.com was a website that did not keep the customers first in mind. Its one saving grace, "free returns" where Boo.com would pay the postage for all returns, was not logistical for a company serving an international community. After two years, Boo.com folded having burned through $160 million.

GovWorks.com -- Founded by childhood friends Kaleil Tuzman and Tom Herman, GovWorks.com began as a way for people to pay their parking tickets online. But with Kaleil serving as salesman and Tom designing the technology, GovWorks.com grew into a site with the intention of allowing people to perform all necessary business with municipal governments online. Kaleil and Tom quickly found themselves hobnobbing with power players within the United States government, and were able to gather $60 million in venture capital funds. Soon afterwards however, tension grew between the two friends, and Tom was kicked out of the company. In the end, GovWorks.com was a complete flop and was taken over by a competitor.

MVP.com -- Your online sports equipment store! With John Elway as chairman, and Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky serving as directors, MVP.com was the veritable Planet Hollywood of the internet. But like Planet Hollywood, it took more than big names to keep the company afloat. It also took more than the mere $65 million war chest MVP.com started with. After entering into a four-year advertising deal with CBS, MVP.com promptly failed to pay the $10 million a year it had agreed to within their contract. All this despite the fact that MVP.com charged the same amount online as one would find in a retail store. The company folded soon after and was taken over by CBS's online affiliate Sportsline.com.

When companies such as these fail, it is more than just a website going down. Consumers are left with fewer choices, and today's new online companies find it that much more difficult to raise capital. Ideas that could bring fabulous new services to the marketplace will never see the light of day due to the careless failures of their predecessors. Unfortunately, the same thing is still going on today. EONS, the social network for senior citizens has had $32 million invested into it despite sporting such tasteful features as an obituary section. Although not a website, Amp'd Mobile recently went under, burning through $360 million in only two years. Often, ill-fated business decisions can be attributed to naivety, but other times it is plainly more malicious. Filmloop.com recently went under, because its primary funding venture capital firm forced it to sell for bottom dollar, despite the business doing well. In other cases, venture capital groups have made countless new companies possible through initial funding, only to then dog-ear that money for marketing to produce buzz. Once that buzz was established and the stock had raised, the venture capitalists would sell and move on, leaving the public share holders to bear the collapse of a company that could have made it had it been given a chance through patience, and better management. In this list alone, almost $2.5 billion was lost. Money that could have been better spent than in the risky world of venture capital.

Back in Kabul

Last Friday we drove to Paghman with our friend Jean. Driver Karim, the father of five, takes his oldest shy daughter with us as well. We have a wonderful walk up to Paghman River, enjoying warm sunshine and murmur of the stream. I wonder that there are almost no people in the popular picnic place; the season seems to be over. Just some jaded kebab-offers have a tedious time while some families eat their kebab, mast and chai under the trees covered with golden leaves.
We have had a long holiday – one and half month – in our home back in Estonia. I am always amazed about the metamorphosis inside myself, moving from my homeland in Northern Europe to Afghanistan. And opposite. For example, it takes some days to become used to the fact that we can buy frozen foodstuff like ice cream – because there is all-time electricity. Back in our lovely Kabul home, after one day I have already the feeling as if I lived here forever.
After one-month routine in Estonia, Kabul seems dangerous and unattractive. Especially thanks to media – there is a lot of coverage as there are more than one hundred Estonian troops in Helmand. After a while I stop reading the articles about Afghanistan written by Estonian journalists, spending one-week war-tourism-trips in south. Last one I tried to read began with sentence: ´”There is no doubt that military helicopter is the most preferred transportation in Afghanistan.” Really?!
I am the only Estonian journalist living in Afghanistan. I am not very beloved by my homeland defence forces because I have not praised the foreign forces. They dislike me so much that I was not allowed to listen to NATO conference about Afghanistan in my hometown. There is not enough room, was their answer.
Conversations in Estonia about our living here are almost always the same: how can you live in that horrible country? My replay is: it is beautiful country. I spend so much energy explaining the simplest facts. There are big differences between south and north. There is a different climate. There are different landscapes. There are different tribes and traditions. And definitely all Afghans are not interested to kidnap or kill me...
To explain my point of view I started to organize photo exhibitions in biggest cities of Estonia. The official to whome I showed my photos, seemed really confused. It can’t be Afghanistan, she just murmured. Also I decided to publish a book (in Estonian) with my own photos. In order to counterbalance fear and hatred, that is generally connected to Afghanistan-topic, the title will be Beloved Afghanistan.

SAP: SAP Should Follow Oracle’s Lead

There has been plenty of hot air expelled this week over whether SAP’s (SAP - Annual Report) acquisition of Business Objects (BOBJ) is a sign that it is adopting Oracle’s (ORCL - Annual Report) big acquisition strategy or whether it is a simply a larger part of SAP’s existing strategy of using small “tuck-in” acquisitions. I’ll leave others to bloviate on those issues.

I am less interested in whether SAP is following Oracle’s strategy than whether they ought to be. And I think the answer to that question is a resounding “yes.”

For one thing, corporate IT buyers’ main concerns tend to be reducing costs and reducing complexity. Much better to have Oracle and SAP tie together the applications from a number of vendors (by directly integrating them) than to devote in-house IT staff to doing it. Research 2.0 criticizes the Business Objects acquisition for this reason, saying “SAP now faces many of the same incompatible architectural challenges faced by Oracle with its many acquisitions.” I think their customers would rather have SAP deal with the incompatibilities than to have to do it themselves. Since when is making life easier for customers a bad thing?

More importantly, however, there are just too darn many application software manufacturers out there. While consolidation in some industries occurs because the weaker businesses fail, software balance sheets are generally too strong to for this to happen. The only way to fix the problem of too many customers chasing a relatively fixed amount of dollars is for an industry leader to soak up the excess capital by leveraging its own balance sheet to acquire other companies - for cash, not shares. Oracle has been pursuing that fix.

Software companies tend to generate significant cash flow, and Oracle has been able to use this cash flow to fund the acquisitions while both maintaining a healthy balance sheet and avoiding dilution to existing shareholders. As an example, consider its first large acquisition – that of PeopleSoft in January 2005 for $11.1 billion in cash. Prior to the acquisition Oracle held more than $9.5 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet, and had virtually no debt. The company used this cash and a $7 billion bridge loan to complete the acquisition, and by the end of its fiscal year in May, 2005 it had reduced the loan value to $2.6 billion while still maintaining nearly $5 billion in cash and marketable securities and actually reducing its share count.

By May, 2006 the company had made another $4 billion worth of acquisitions (net of the cash held by the acquired companies) and increased its cash and marketable securities to $7.5 billion while restructuring its debt load to $5.7 billion in long-term debt. Even though the debt was $3 billion more than the prior year, most of that was offset by the increase in cash – meaning that the $4 billion in acquisitions was made possible almost entirely through cash flow from operations.

Speaking of cash flow, in the year ended May 2007 Oracle generated $5.5 billion of it from operating activities, and spent only $320 million of it on capital expenditures. That turns out to be a free cash flow yield of 4.5% from the existing businesses. Most of that continues to be invested in new acquisitions for new growth opportunities. The free cash flow has increased 55% since FY2005.

Meanwhile, SAP is generated approximately $2.0 billion in free cash flow last year, giving it a 3.0% free cash flow yield. Its acquisition avoidance has left the free cash flow essentially unchanged over the last three years (though arguably the change in the Euro/dollar exchange rate is providing growth.)

A higher yield and growing free cash flow compared with a lower, flat one is not much of a choice in my book.

If any doubt remains over which strategy is working better, one need only turn to a price chart. Since Oracle closed the PeopleSoft acquisition in January 2005, its shares are up 70% (mostly driven by rising cash flow), compared to just more than 30% for SAP over the same time. To me, it seems like that is exactly the type of “challenge” SAP would want to adopt.

Top 10 Most Fuel Efficient Cars

Here's the top 10 most fuel efficient cars, according to the 2008 Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy's fuel economy guidebook, published this Saturday. Prius tops the charts.

2008 Model Year Overall Fuel Economy Leaders

Class Model City/Highway MPG

10. Honda Fit (manual) 28/34
9. Toyota Corolla (manual) 28/37
8. Ford Escape Hybrid 4WD 29/27, Mercury Mariner Hybrid 4WD ", Mazda Tribute Hybrid 4WD "
7. Toyota Yaris (automatic) 29/35
6. Toyota Yaris (manual) 29/36
5. Toyota Camry Hybrid 33/34
4. Ford Escape Hybrid FWD 34/30, MazdaTribute Hybrid 2WD ", Mercury Mariner Hybrid FWD "
3. Nissan Altima Hybrid 35/33
2. Honda Civic Hybrid 40/45
1. Toyota Prius (hybrid-electric) 48/45

If you want to save on gas, hybrids are the way to go.

Lowest Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class for 2008 Model Year

Class Model City/Highway MPG

Two Seater Lamborghini Murcielago (manual) 8/13
Minicompact Car Aston Martin DB9 Coupe, Volante (manual) 10/16
Subcompact Car Bentley Continental GTC 10/17
Compact Car Bentley Azure 9/15
Midsize Car Ferrari 612 Scaglietti (auto) 9/16
Large Car Bentley Arnage RL 9/15
Small Station Wagon Audi S4 Avant (manual) 13/20
Midsize Station Wagon Mercedes-Benz E63 AMG Wagon 12/18
Sport Utility Vehicle* Mercedes-Benz G55 AMG 11/13
Minivan* Toyota Sienna 4WD 16/21
Pickup Truck* Rousch Performance Stage3 F150 11/15
Van (Passenger and
Cargo)*
Passenger Chevrolet G1500/2500 EXPRESS 2WD 12/16
" Chevrolet H1500 EXPRESS AWD "
" GMC G1500/2500 SAVANA 2WD "
" GMC H1500 SAVANA VAN AWD "
Cargo Chevrolet G15/25 VAN CONV 2WD "
" Chevrolet H1500 VAN CONV AWD "
" GMC G15/25 SAVANA 2WD CONV "
" GMC H1500 SAVANA AWD CONV "

*Trucks over 8500 pounds gross vehicle weight rating are currently exempt from federal fuel economy requirements

Highest Fuel Economy Models by Vehicle Class for 2008 Model Year

Class Model City/Highway MPG

Two Seater Audi TT Roadster (2 liter engine,auto) 22/29
Minicompact Car Mini Cooper Convertible (manual) 23/32
Subcompact Car Toyota Yaris (manual) 29/36
Compact Car Honda Civic Hybrid 40/45
Midsize Car Toyota Prius (hybrid) 48/45
Large Car Honda Accord 4Dr Sedan (manual) 22/31
Small Station Wagon Honda Fit (manual) 28/34
Midsize Station Wagon Passat Wagon (manual) 21/29
Sport Utility Vehicle Ford Escape Hybrid FWD 34/30
Mazda Tribute Hybrid 2WD "
Mercury Mariner Hybrid FWD "
Minivan Dodge Caravan 2WD 17/24
Chrysler Town & Country 2WD "
Pickup Truck Ford Ranger Pickup 2WD (manual) 21/26
Mazda B2300 2WD (manual) "
Van (Cargo&Passenger)Chevrolet G1500/2500 Van 2WD 15/20
(4.3 liter engine)
GMC G1500/2500 Savana 2WD Cargo "
(4.3 liter engine)

Lowest Overall Fuel Economy Models* for 2008 Model Year

Rank Manufacturer/Model City/Highway MPG

1. Lamborghini Murcielago (automatic) 8/13
2. Bugati Veyron 8/14
3. Lamborghini Murcielago (manual) 9/14
4. Bently Azure/Arnage RL 9/15
5. Ferrari 612 Scaglietti (automatic) 9/16
6. Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder (manual) 10/15
Ferrari Ferrari 612 Scaglietti (manual) "
Bentley Arnage (auttomatic) "
7. Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder 10/16
Aston Martin DB9 Coupe "
Aston Martin DB9 Volante "
Mercedes-Benz Maybach 57 "
Mercedes-Benz Maybach 57S "
Mercedes-Benz Maybach 62 "
Mercedes-Benz Maybach 62S "
8. Lamborghini Gallardo Coupe (manual) 10/17
Bentley Continental GT (automatic) "
Bentley Continental GTC (automatic) "
Bentley Continental Flying Spur (automatic) "
9. Mercedes-Benz G55 AMG 11/13
10. Jeep Grand Cherokee 4WD 11/14
Mercedes-Benz Ml63 AMG "

US Foreclosures Nearly Double

Foreclosure filings across the U.S. nearly doubled last month compared with September 2006, as financially strapped homeowners already behind on mortgage payments defaulted on their loans or came closer to losing their homes to foreclosure, a real estate information company said Thursday.

A total of 223,538 foreclosure filings were reported in September, up from 112,210 in the same month a year ago, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.

The number of filings in September was down 8 percent from August's 243,947, the firm said.

Despite the sequential decline, the September figure represents the second-highest total for filings in a single month since the company began tracking monthly filings two years ago.

"August was an extraordinarily high month for foreclosure activity, so some falloff was almost predictable," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.

The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Some properties might have received more than one notice if the owners have multiple mortgages.

Typically, borrowers must be 60 to 90 days past due on their mortgage payments before their lender will consider them in default, the first stage of the foreclosure process. If a homeowner can't find a way to get current on payments, the home is then often put up for auction, and if it doesn't sell, it eventually goes back to the bank.

In all, 39 states saw a decline in foreclosure filings, the firm said.

Sharga noted that there was a spike in the number of bank repossessions in August that did not occur in September.

It's likely that the sequential decline in foreclosure activity between August and September was just a blip, not a bellwether of lessening foreclosure filings.

"We don't see September as the beginning of the end in this cycle of foreclosures," Sharga said.

The foreclosure rate for the nation in September was one foreclosure filing for every 557 households, the firm said.

The U.S. housing market has seen sales decline and home prices fall or remain flat, making it harder for homeowners who can't afford to make mortgage payments to sell their homes or seek refinancing.

Many of those troubled homeowners were among those who took on adjustable-rate mortgages that are now adjusting to a higher interest rate, translating into payments they cannot afford to make.

The rising delinquencies and foreclosures this year have led the mortgage industry to tighten lending standards, further narrowing options for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage.

Nevada, Florida and California had the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month, the firm said.

Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 185 households, earning the state the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for the ninth month in a row. The state had 5,504 filings in September, down 11.1 percent from August and more than triple from September 2006.

Florida had one foreclosure filing for every 248 households. The state reported 33,354 foreclosure filings in September, down just less than 2 percent from August, but more than three times greater than September 2006's total.

California's foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.

Rounding out the states with the top 10 foreclosure rates last month were Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Colorado, Texas and Indiana.

Income inequality worst since 1920s, according to IRS data

Half of US senators are millionaires

The superrich are gobbling up an ever larger piece of the economic pie, and the poor are seeing their share of earnings shrink: new IRS data shows the top 1 percent of Americans are claiming a larger share of national income than at any time since before the Great Depression.

The top percentile of wealthy Americans earned 21.2 percent of all income in 2005, up from 19 percent in 2004, according to new Internal Revenue Service data published in the Wall Street Journal Friday.

Americans in the bottom 50 percent of wage earners saw their share of income shrink to 12.8 percent in 2005, down from 13.4 percent.

"Scholars attribute rising inequality to several factors," the Journal reports, "including technological change that favors those with more skills, and globalization and advances in communications that enlarge the rewards available to 'superstar' performers whether in business, sports or entertainment."

The data could cause problems to President Bush and Republican presidential candidates, who have played up low unemployment and a strong economy since 2003, crediting Bush's tax cuts for contributing to both. In an interview with the Journal, Bush downplayed the significance of the income gap, saying more education is the answer to narrowing it.

"First of all, our society has had income inequality for a long time. Secondly, skills gaps yield income gaps," Bush told the Journal. "And what needs to be done about the inequality of income is to make sure people have got good education, starting with young kids. That's why No Child Left Behind is such an important component of making sure that America is competitive in the 21st century."

The Journal notes that many Americans fear the economy is entering a recession, and the IRS data show income for the median earner fell 2 percent between 2000 and 2005 to $30,881. Earnings for the top 1 percent grew to $364,657 -- a 3 percent uptick.

Scholarly research suggests that top earners did not have such a large share of total income since the 1920s, the Journal reported.

The Journal reports that a recent stock boom likely contributed to higher earnings among those in the top income bracket, with hedge fund managers and Wall Street attorneys seeing their incomes skyrocket in recent years.

Another prominent pool or wealthy Americans gathers regularly on Capitol Hill to write the nation's laws. The Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign spending and politicians' wealth, says more than a third of Congress members are millionaires, with at least half the Senate falling into the millionaires club.

Forbes reported that last year's incoming class of new Senators did "little to shake the Senate's image as a millionaires club," with half of the newly elected members having seven- eight- or nine-figure personal fortunes.

Freshman Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is worth between $64 million and $236 million, and newly elected Sen. Claire McCaskill's (D-MO) fortune is between $13 million and $29 million. R

Roll Call estimates Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) is the chamber's richest member with an estimated net worth of $750 million; another Democrat, Wisconsin Sen. Herb Kohl, is among the chamber's richest with between $220 million and $234 million in personal assets.

SBUX: Is Starbucks doomed or an excellent opportunity to invest?

So, after 50 years of selling hot mud, McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) continues to awaken to the notion that its customers might enjoy coffee that tastes good. According to Crain’s Chicago Business, “McDonald’s Corp. plans to sell lattes, cappuccinos and other specialty drinks in all of its 14,000 U.S. restaurants next year. McDonald’s predicts the new drinks will add more than $1 billion a year to sales.”

Not surprisingly, the anti-Starbuck’s (SBUX) crowd has latched on to this announcement as proof the company is doomed. 24/7 Wall St. even called it a “coup de grace,” which is defined as a “death blow intended to end the suffering of a wounded creature.” Although Starbuck’s the stock is certainly suffering, down about a third from the high reached earlier this year, it is hard to argue the company is wounded, or in need of a merciful end to its suffering.

It’s time for the doubters to face some facts. First, McDonald’s is not planning to match Starbuck’s “product for product.” In a Bloomberg article published just last month, McDonald’s President Ralph Alvarez said McDonald’s has no plans to offer the breadth of Starbuck’s beverages such as raspberry latte with soy milk and half the caffeine. Instead, they intend to compete for the plain-Jane cappuccino, offering it at about a 25% discount to the equivalent Starbuck’s model.

Secondly, Starbuck’s doesn’t need to concede the future market growth to others. For one thing, McDonald’s is already selling the cappuccinos in two thirds of its stores, according to the Bloomberg article. That potential market share loss has already been baked in, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting too badly. Starbuck’s same store sales growth is running at 4%, below its historical norm but above that of most retailers. If anything, the fact that most of McDonald’s rollout will be complete next year could ease the pressure on comp sales.

If further convincing is necessary, just look at the expected sales numbers. McDonald’s wants specialty drinks in 14,000 stores to add $1 billion to sales. In 2006 Starbucks had an average store count of approximately 6,500 and produced $6.5 billion in sales from them. In other words, they are still selling 14 times as much coffee per store as McDonald’s. The further incursion from the remaining one-third of McDonald’s expansion, even under the generous assumption that 100% of those sales would have otherwise gone to Starbuck’s, amounts to about 4% of Starbuck’s trailing twelve month company-owned retail sales – about one year’s worth of same store sales growth at worst.

Meanwhile, over the last 12 months Starbucks has generated $1.2 billion in cash flow from operating activities, and used just $1 billion to expand those operations by 15%. Assuming that two thirds of the capital expenditures went to open new stores and the rest was routine maintenance, the free cash flow from their existing store base is approximately $700 million per year, for a 3.5% free cash flow yield on the $20 billion enterprise value. It isn’t what I would call cheap, but it is much less like a wounded animal than a healthy tiger pouring its energy into a continued pounce by opening still more stores. At its current expansion rate, in two years the free cash flow yield would exceed that offered by treasuries, and Starbuck’s would still be only halfway through its expansion plans.

I would consider the stock cheap if it went down another 15% to $22.50, or if it just stayed at about the current price for another year. Since neither of those outcomes is certain, Starbuck’s fans will have to pick their own entry point. In the meantime, my favored strategy of writing put options may be worth considering. The April 2008 $27.50 puts are selling for about $2.30 right now. By writing those options you could earn an 8.5% 6-month return if the stock goes up, or buy the stock for an effective price of about $24.25 (which by April would probably meet my “cheap” criteria) if it goes down.

I think it is great that McDonald’s is offering its customers good coffee, and think the two companies can coexist much in the same way that McDonald’s has coexisted with, for example, hamburgers sold at ballparks. The two companies have very different customers and serve different purposes for them throughout the day. As for “coups de grace,” I don’t expect either company will need one any time soon.

Disclosure: Author is long Starbucks (SBUX) at time of publication. - by stockmarketbeat

An interesting list of fastest growing companies:

Rank	Company	EPS growth*	Revenue growth*	Total return*
1	NutriSystem	433%	225%	244%
2	Hansen Natural	145%	80%	139%
3	Arena Resources	140%	165%	100%
4	Intuitive Surgical	123%	62%	94%
5	Titanium Metals	151%	48%	140%
6	Apple	149%	48%	96%
7	RTI International Metals	225%	43%	68%
8	Dynamic Materials	127%	45%	173%
9	Southern Copper	83%	67%	83%
10	Global Industries	159%	48%	67%
11	Frontier Oil	291%	33%	105%
12	Allegheny Technologies	250%	36%	81%
13	Ceradyne	105%	85%	46%
14	VASCO Data Security International	75%	54%	120%
15	Perficient	59%	77%	73%
16	Holly	89%	42%	101%
17	SEACOR Holdings	198%	59%	29%
18	Pioneer Drilling	262%	58%	25%
19	Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold	127%	51%	44%
20	Kansas City Southern	178%	52%	34%
21	Ladish	198%	28%	70%
22	Grey Wolf	248%	51%	25%
23	Allscripts Healthcare Solutions	138%	38%	48%
24	XTO Energy	83%	60%	42%
25	Grant Prideco	300%	33%	43%
26	Hornbeck Offshore Services	157%	38%	44%
27	Dawson Geophysical	97%	54%	41%
28	National Oilwell Varco	69%	61%	49%
29	Helmerich & Payne	202%	37%	40%
30	Dril-Quip	116%	32%	69%
31	Knot	155%	26%	72%
32	First Acceptance	105%	277%	13%
33	CB Richard Ellis Group	88%	33%	79%
34	Gulfmark Offshore	306%	28%	48%
35	Helix Energy Solutions Group	96%	53%	38%
36	Valero Energy	87%	37%	60%
37	General Cable	76%	32%	107%
38	Hologic	74%	39%	68%
39	Lufkin Industries	98%	33%	61%
40	American Science & Engineering	169%	35%	40%
41	Joy Global	141%	27%	65%
42	Range Resources	66%	50%	57%
43	Palomar Medical Technologies	119%	51%	27%
44	Patterson-UTI Energy	136%	52%	17%
45	Unit	91%	58%	26%
46	Netflix	180%	49%	-19%
47	Gardner Denver	59%	57%	45%
48	Akamai Technologies	123%	39%	39%
49	Psychiatric Solutions	76%	50%	43%
50	F5 Networks	69%	51%	45%
51	Rowan Cos.	532%	36%	20%
52	RPC	106%	30%	55%
53	Atwood Oceanics	155%	27%	49%
54	Superior Energy Services	87%	32%	58%
55	W-H Energy Services	100%	33%	47%
56	First Marblehead	83%	79%	13%
57	TETRA Technologies	75%	40%	47%
58	Cognizant Technology Solutions	55%	56%	43%
59	Cleveland-Cliffs	72%	31%	78%
60	ImClone Systems	87%	65%	-26%
61	ValueClick	47%	81%	35%
62	Allis-Chalmers Energy	54%	118%	33%
63	Nucor	118%	27%	50%
64	Chesapeake Energy	58%	65%	34%
65	Celgene	33%	48%	59%
66	Tesoro	82%	29%	61%
67	Precision Castparts	73%	31%	65%
68	Miller Industries	145%	30%	37%
69	Oneok	34%	72%	37%
70	Reliance Steel & Aluminum	75%	40%	42%
71	Southwestern Energy	37%	35%	84%
72	Lam Research	132%	37%	24%
73	Penn National Gaming	81%	28%	54%
74	Jones Lang Lasalle	73%	28%	61%
75	Radiant Systems	115%	28%	41%
76	Steel Dynamics	66%	38%	45%
77	Oil States International	71%	42%	39%
78	Layne Christensen	76%	38%	35%
79	Pinnacle Financial Partners	46%	81%	17%
80	Concur Technologies	165%	27%	29%
81	Avatar Hldgs.	82%	45%	23%
82	inVentiv Health	57%	51%	33%
83	Noble Energy	58%	47%	35%
84	A.M. Castle	74%	28%	50%
85	Encore Wire	84%	43%	17%
86	Commercial Metals	63%	27%	62%
87	American Capital Strategies	31%	62%	25%
88	Team	35%	48%	41%
89	WMS Industries	109%	35%	13%
90	First Advantage	43%	74%	7%
91	Deckers Outdoor	47%	32%	51%
92	OYO Geospace	56%	29%	58%
93	Pantry	101%	29%	28%
94	Cameron International	70%	30%	43%
95	Jackson Hewitt Tax Services	61%	50%	18%
96	Dress Barn	100%	28%	34%
97	World Fuel Services	32%	57%	24%
98	Regal Beloit	55%	44%	30%
99	Swift Energy	64%	43%	25%
100	Berry Petroleum	46%	40%	38%